A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
